📈 Mortgage Rate Market Update
Good morning!
🏡 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE
Why Didn’t Mortgage Rates Fall After the Jobs Report?
Mortgage rates had another bumpy week, with the national average 30-year fixed ending Friday at 7.57%.
At first glance, Friday’s Jobs Report looked like exactly what the bond market had been waiting for:
- Only 29,000 jobs were added vs. 90,000 expected
- Unemployment ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%
Normally, weaker employment data could be good news for mortgage rates, but this time, rates didn’t cooperate.
📊 Why Not?
The market looked beyond the headline numbers.
While unemployment technically rose to 4.2%, the underlying data showed the labor market wasn’t quite as weak as the headline suggested. At the same time, other factors, including rising oil prices and concerns overseas, pushed bond yields back higher.
The result? Mortgage rates gave back their early improvement and finished the week slightly higher.
🌟 But There WAS Some Good News
Inflation gave us an encouraging surprise this week.
Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.0% year-over-year versus 3.3% expected.
We also saw:
- JOLTS job openings: 7.079M vs. 7.23M expected
- Consumer confidence: 81.9 vs. 89.2 expected
- Payroll growth: Just 29K vs. 90K expected
These are signs that parts of the economy may be cooling, which is ultimately what we need to see for sustained improvement in mortgage rates.
👀 What Are We Watching Next Week?
It’s a lighter economic calendar, but there are still a few important reports:
- Monday: ISM Services
- Wednesday: Fed Meeting Minutes
- Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims
- Friday: Consumer Sentiment
The Fed Minutes will be especially interesting as markets look for clues about how policymakers are viewing inflation, employment and the path ahead.
🏡 And Remember, Real Estate Hasn't Stopped
Yes, rates are higher. But buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling.
People still get married, have babies, relocate for jobs, downsize, retire and simply find a house they love.
The right house, at the right price, with the right financing strategy can still make sense, regardless of what the national rate headline says.
In this market, strategy and communication matter more than ever. Sometimes a seller credit, temporary buydown, price negotiation or simply structuring the financing differently can make the numbers work.
📲 Have a buyer sitting on the sidelines because of rates? Send them my way. Let’s run the numbers before they assume buying isn’t an option.